The Bandwagon Effect: Following The Majority

As Facundo Cabral once said, “We should only eat grass. Millions of cows can’t all be wrong, can they?’ He refers to the irony of following the majority without thinking critically about it. In other words: following others just because they are superior. This is a cognitive bias known as the bandwagon effect.

The bandwagon effect specifically involves the belief that something is true because most people believe it.  People who are victims of this cognitive bias do not base their judgments on evidence or logical reasoning. They base their judgment on the power of the majority, because if so many people think this or that way, surely it must be true?

Politicians know the power of the bandwagon effect best. Hundreds of studies have been conducted on how politicians use this to project their ‘truths’ onto us. It does not matter whether these truths are true or not. You see this most often during election periods. People gradually start to believe that the candidate who always comes out on top in the polls is actually the best. It makes no difference whether or not the voter is aware of their ideas or the validity of their claims.

The origin of the bandwagon effect

Translated directly, ‘bandwagon’ means a ‘wagon with an orchestra.’ The first person to consciously use the term “bandwagon effect” was North American actor Dan Rice in 1848. During that year’s presidential campaign, Rice used the associated phrase “jump on the bandwagon.” . By this he meant “climb aboard with everyone else.” This is how he brought President Zachary Taylor to power.

It was during this period that it became apparent that an expression such as this had an enormous power to make impressive masses  even bigger. This resulted in a gigantic domino effect. In other words, it seemed to be contagious. People wanted to keep up and be part of contemporary trends.

Little by little, people began to understand that the bandwagon effect could result in huge political benefits. People always want to be on the winning team. Therefore  , they can simply join the one who manages to gain more followers, be it a politician or another person. This creates a climate where everything reinforces the leading person.

The bandwagon effect and the argumentum ad populum

An argumentum ad populum — or populist fallacy — is a false assumption that nevertheless reflects majority opinion. While discussing this topic, Carl Sagan mentions that he has been reprimanded by a taxi driver. The driver asked him if he believed in UFOs, to which Sagan said he didn’t. The driver’s response was rejection and skepticism.

The driver believed that Sagan was hiding his real opinion. If he had said that he  does believe in aliens, even though it would have been a lie, he had received the approval of the driver.

So this is an example of how the bandwagon effect can manifest itself. Politicians and marketers almost always try to tell people what they want to hear. It doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. What matters to them is that they play back popular opinions to the masses and thereby win the sympathy of the majority.

The risks of the bandwagon effect

However, it is not just easy for people in positions of power. It’s not enough just to tell lies that everyone wants to hear. It takes more to earn the vote of the majority. The bandwagon effect is a double-edged sword. Becoming the most popular person also means being exposed to the crowd. Any news about this person that puts them in a negative light could hurt their reputation. Everyone pays much more attention to the winning game, as was said before.

Incidentally, one of the participants or candidates can unleash an even stronger trend on people. People follow leaders not out of conviction, but simply because of the heavy weight that the bandwagon effect represents. Therefore, one can easily turn one’s back on the one who seems weaker in logical reasoning. If someone is able to present themselves as a potential winner, many people will defect to this person. In doing so, they leave their original preference behind.

The bandwagon effect is also known as herd behaviour.  It’s important to be aware of this so you don’t fall victim to someone who sells nothing but lies.